A Layman's View

Cricket – it’s an understatement to call it an obsession. It’s a religion in Sri Lanka. Though, results haven’t really been positive of late, there is still a huge fan following all over the island.

The next 50 overs world cup is only months away. 

All the teams would play 10 to 15 games before the grand event. Based on current form, it’s clear that England and India are firm favorites while South Africa, New Zealand and Pakistan could spring a few surprises – well you can’t technically call them surprises since they also have a good chance of winning the coveted trophy, but England and India are so far ahead at the moment that there’s a gulf between them and the other teams. Australia would be a force to recon with if Steve Smith and David Warner could return to the thick of things without any hangover from not playing competitive cricket for 1 year. Other teams, Sri Lanka, West Indies, Bangladesh and Afghanistan, well they would consider a semifinals birth as great as winning the world cup.

So, let’s analyze the two front runners.

England – clearly, they’re the better side of the two.

There are plenty of strengths but in terms of weaknesses, it would be hard to find a lot. One weakness is that, both in batting and bowling, they don’t seem to have a lot of bench resources with good international pedigree. Alex Hales is an excellent back up but beyond him, you’re looking at fringe players. Same with bowling – outside their preferred attack of Woakes, Willy, Plunkett, Stokes, Rashid and Ali, there aren’t too many tried and tested options (perhaps Tom Curren?). But the issue is clear, bench strength is a weakness. Specially, in a long tournament like the world cup, bench strength might be a decisive factor. Having said that, if that’s your only headache, it’s a good one to have since it implies that your first eleven is settled,

Roy, Bairstow, Root, Morgan, Stokes, Butler, Ali, Woakes, Willy, Rashid, Plunket

+ Great batting depth in the first eleven

+ Excellent bowling depth in the first eleven

+ In form, well-oiled engine

But,

- The ultra-aggressive style of play could go horribly wrong on a bad day

What about India?

They have a few problems to sort of out as well… Number 4 has been a perennial issue but finally they’ve settled down with Rayudu. But you feel that he is not quite concrete yet – will he be able to hold on to his place if he fails in the next 10 games? May be not.  

MS Dhoni is awfully out of form at number 5. Kedhar Jadhav has spent more time nursing injuries than playing cricket and Hardik Pandya’s story isn’t too different either. Jadhav and Pandya are extremely critical to India’s team balance. Jadhav provides the 6^th bowling option – in an era where batsmen who bowl a bit has become gold dust, Jadhav is the only plausible option now. Pandya is the only seam bowling allrounder India could field at the moment. If he’s not available, they will have to consider Jadeja which would mean one of the wrist spinners (Chahal) sits out. And we all know they’ve been the difference in the last couple of years. Bhuvi at best is a good number 8 – playing him at 7 weakens the batting order significantly.

But on a positive note,

+ Top 3 is unmatched

+ Bumrah and Kuldeep could possibly be the two best bowlers in limited overs cricket right now

+ Combined, these 5 could well be the greatest match winners in world cricket at the moment

So, a long story short, India don’t need all 11 players to fire, they just need 2 or 3 of these match winners to do their thing. But,

- In a long tournament like the world cup, this is playing with fire

Both England and India are nowhere near as invincible as the West Indies in 1970s or the Australians in 2000s. But out of the teams in contention, they are clear favorites.